Turkish Foreign Policy
In Altinbas University, a discussion on 'Opportunities in Turkish Foreign Policy in the Second Century of the Republic' was held. During the discussion, a projection for the future century with a focus on Turkey was made.
A panel discussion held at Altınbaş University's Gayrettepe campus was moderated by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahadır Kaynak. The participants of the discussion included Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan, Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın, and Prof. Dr. Burhanettin Duran.
Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan, the Rector of Altınbaş University, noted that with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the world entered a new era of search and transformation. According to Erhan, the contemporary world is once again witnessing the construction of a bipolar global order, which he regards as the emergence of a new Cold War. Erhan emphasized that this is not a favorable development, as throughout history, such power struggles have always resulted in global conflicts. He highlighted that Turkey finds itself right in the middle of these changes, with the boundaries of this new bipolar world order passing through its vicinity. The problems of Turkey's neighbors are now having an impact on the country. Erhan also pointed out the complexities arising from Turkey's dual role as a neighbor to Russia and a member of NATO. In light of the tumultuous and chaotic global environment, he suggested that this situation could lead Turkey into closer cooperation with the Turkic world, presenting an opportunity for the future.
Formun Üstü
Highlighting the significance of the close collaboration with the Turkic world stretching all the way to China's borders in terms of Turkish foreign policy, Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan suggested that the Turkic Cooperation Organization could evolve beyond being merely a socio-cultural organization into a Turan economic area. He also mentioned that there are signs that Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan could slowly develop political cooperation, especially given the support shown by Turkic Cooperation Organization member states during the Karabakh War, which was considered positive and previously unthinkable. Erhan raised the question of whether this could lead to a way forward. He emphasized that the Turkic world could become a power zone for Turkey, one that not only meets its energy needs and defense industry requirements but also facilitates trade and energy transit routes between China and the West. Erhan underscored the need for several steps to be taken for this to materialize, expressing that if Turkey is reluctant to go into the upcoming major confrontation alone, it might find this field the easiest to develop, potentially allowing for a neutral stance between these new bipolar blocs.
Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan shared the anticipation that both the European Union and NATO would not remain as they are today, emphasizing that these two organizations would need to transform themselves within the next 10 years according to the changing circumstances. Erhan pointed out that NATO is making efforts to transform into a global security organization, and if this transformation extends towards the Pacific coast, it could cause greater concerns for China. Similarly, the biggest obstacle to the European Union maintaining its current structure is the emergence of Germany as a superpower. In a scenario where both the EU and NATO transform, Erhan argued that Turkey should come together with other countries to present an alternative. He expressed the view that in this tumultuous and chaotic environment, Turkey might turn its focus toward the Turkic world. Erhan also considered this situation as an opportunity for Turkey to break free from Western influence, as he believed that the West does not treat Turkey as an equal partner. He stated that Turkey's prospects for full EU membership are dim, and being neighbors might be a more realistic option.
Kadir Has University faculty member Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın expressed his apprehension about a possible major confrontation. In response to the question of "How can tensions such as the prolonged Ukraine War in the North and Hamas's attacks on Israel in the South bring opportunities?" Aydın emphasized that in a world where everything is interconnected, a multi-crisis, multi-polar, and multi-dimensional system will prevail. He stressed that Turkey, being a country with diverse identities, should make its foreign policy multi-layered. He further mentioned that Turkey should be a part of everything and everyone in this complex international landscape.
Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın emphasized the importance of Turkey continuing its 200-year-old policy of balance, underlining that Turkey should align its geography, identity, and history. He also discussed the concept of the "5 Sea Basins" as a framework for development and opportunities. Aydın mentioned that the Caspian Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf are areas where Turkey can have a significant impact. He pointed out that these regions are within 3-4 hours of flight from Ankara, highlighting Turkey's strategic geographical location.
According to Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın, there are three main risk factors for Turkey in the current process:
The risk of isolation: In today's world, no one can afford to be isolated.
Being in the midst of conflict zones: Turkey is affected by and sometimes unable to control tensions even within its own borders.
Staying outside of economic strategic points: Looking at the key points of world trade, it appears that the world is returning to the old trade routes. From China to Europe, it's reminiscent of the Silk Road and Spice Routes. Also, it's crucial not to miss out on emerging technologies, as history has shown the consequences of this mistake several times.
Prof. Dr. Burhanettin Duran, the General Coordinator of SETA (Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research), predicted that crises would increase, transformations would pose challenges, and the intensification of uncertainty and great power competition would bring new opportunities. He emphasized that the pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, and the Israel-Palestine conflict have mobilized numerous actors, leading to the formation of new alliances. Prof. Dr. Duran expects a multipolar world, with various actors like India and Turkey seeking their opportunities and contributing to the developments in their respective areas of influence.
Duran expressed that he believes the 21st century will place Turkey in a more constructive role, emphasizing that Turkey is continuing its path by aligning with its geography and recognizing opportunities. He mentioned that Turkey is developing its strong diplomatic capacity and cited Turkey's role in Ukraine and its proposal to act as a guarantor in Israel as significant examples in this context. Apart from the Turkic world and the Caucasus, Duran pointed out that Africa is emerging as a new market and will become a continent where great power competition intensifies. While Turkey may not be a major player in technology yet, it can achieve superiority in other areas. Duran also suggested that the Balkans could be included in Turkey's areas of influence.
Duran further emphasized that Turkey needs to remain within Europe and explore these new relationships, even in the midst of conflicts. He pointed out that Turkey is a complex actor and that the United States is struggling to position Turkey in the new game it has created in the Middle East. According to Duran, if Turkey thinks collectively, consolidates its needs, leverages its human capital effectively, maintains technological development, ensures political stability for another decade, and confronts these challenges, it has the potential to enhance its capacity significantly.