Trump's visit to Türkiye may be on the agenda: A new era in bilateral relations?
“If Trump schedules a visit to Türkiye, a number of agenda items that have been pending since the Biden era will be discussed in the meetings with Trump.”
US President Donald Trump's visit to the Gulf countries, scheduled for mid-May, may herald important developments not only regionally but also globally. Türkiye is also expected to be included in the visit program after these contacts, where many critical topics ranging from tensions with Iran to the Middle East crisis, from imbalances in energy markets to regional diplomacy will be discussed.
According to the assessments of Assoc. Prof. Bahadır Kaynak, Head of the Department of International Relations at Altınbaş University, Trump's taking more radical steps in foreign policy with his re-election strengthens the expectation that Türkiye-US relations may be reshaped. In particular, the history of personal diplomacy between President Erdoğan and Trump may pave the way for new meetings at the leadership level. However, these talks are not expected to be easy.
Arms purchases and defense cooperation on the table
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bahadır Kaynak mentioned that arms purchases have been one of the problematic topics in Türkiye-US relations in recent years and added: “Arms purchases may come up again in these talks. Türkiye's plans to shift its S-400 defense systems to other countries and the fifth-generation fighter jet projects may add a new dimension to the negotiations in this area. The prospect of re-inclusion in the F-35 program is also among the topics that can be evaluated between the parties.”
Syria and the Israeli factor: Most critical agenda items
Stating that the biggest potential problem in bilateral relations is thought to stem from Syria, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kaynak said that there is a serious difference of position between Israel and Türkiye regarding this region. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kaynak said: “While Türkiye advocates for peace in Syria and the establishment of a strong government with a new constitution, Israel is in favor of maintaining instability in the region and keeping its northern neighbor weak. If the US stays close to Israel on this issue, it could prevent a full normalization of relations with Türkiye.”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kaynak said, “It is known that Trump is trying to solve political issues with personal diplomacy, as he did in his past. In his meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, he stated that he could mediate with Türkiye, which could be a sign of an effort in this direction. However, the new US administration, which tends to support Israel unconditionally, is not expected to show flexibility in this regard.” His remarks also touched on relations with Israel.
New era, new balances
According to Assoc. Prof. Bahadır Kaynak, Trump's visit to Türkiye after his Gulf visit can be considered as a restorative step in bilateral relations. However, it is stated that differences of opinion on issues such as Syria and Palestine are difficult to overcome easily, and therefore Türkiye-US relations may face new challenges in Trump's second term.